Today / Slovenia - 1. SNL / Celje vs Olimpija Ljubljana

Celje vs Olimpija Ljubljana Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:15

Celje

PPG 1.61 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Olimpija Ljubljana

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-15.9%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.9%1-110.7%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.7%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.0%3-15.9%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-14.0%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 50.0% 2.00 +5.8%

Draw 24.3% 27.8% 3.60 -7.5%

Away win 22.8% 31.3% 3.20 -16.2%

Over 2.5 50.3% 62.5% 1.60 -19.5%

Over 3.5 29.4% 40.8% 2.45 -16.8%

BTTS 51.0% 67.6% 1.48 -24.5%

Home O1.5 49.2% 56.5% 1.77 -12.9%

Away O1.5 20.4% 42.6% 2.35 -31.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 60.7%

Bet Hit 91%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.0%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–0 11.6%

#3 1–0✓ 12.9%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celje1.8

Olimpija Ljubljana0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CELJE · PPG 1.61

OLIMPIJA LJUBLJANA · PPG 1.07

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Celje (H) 52.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +5.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.5%

Olimpija Ljubljana (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celje face Olimpija Ljubljana in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celje a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Olimpija Ljubljana 23%, so Celje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Celje and 0.8 for Olimpija Ljubljana (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celje are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.07 for Olimpija Ljubljana. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Celje vs Olimpija Ljubljana Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions