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Carabobo vs A. Anzoategui Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - 12 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 22:00

Carabobo

PPG 2.00 · HOME

6 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

A. Anzoategui

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a clear edge.

+12.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-13.2%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.4%1-17.3%1-22.0%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.4%2-18.4%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.8%3-16.4%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-16.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.3% 69.0% 1.45 +12.1%

Draw 15.7% 25.6% 3.90 -38.8%

Away win 7.1% 15.4% 6.50 -53.8%

Over 2.5 54.1% 52.6% 1.90 +2.8%

Over 3.5 31.8% 30.8% 3.25 +3.4%

BTTS 37.6% 50.0% 2.00 -24.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob37.6%

H 77% / xG 2.3-0.5 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.4%

#2 1–0 13.4%

#3 3–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 1–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carabobo2.3

A. Anzoategui0.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CARABOBO · PPG 2.00

A. ANZOATEGUI · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away AVERAGE (1.17) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Carabobo (H) 77.3%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV +12.1%

Draw 15.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -38.8%

A. Anzoategui (A) 7.1%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -53.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carabobo face A. Anzoategui in Venezuela - Primera División on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carabobo a 77% chance, the draw 16% and A. Anzoategui 7%, so Carabobo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Carabobo and 0.5 for A. Anzoategui (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carabobo are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.17 for A. Anzoategui. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.1%. This match finished 6-3.

Carabobo vs A. Anzoategui Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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