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Sogndal vs Sandnes ULF Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 15:00

Sogndal

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sandnes ULF

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.8%0-22.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-05.3%1-18.2%1-26.3%1-33.2%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.2%3-16.4%3-24.9%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-15.7%4+-24.4%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 48.8% 2.05 +0.0%

Draw 22.3% 26.0% 3.85 -8.5%

Away win 28.9% 34.7% 2.88 -10.1%

Over 2.5 67.3% 73.5% 1.36 -8.5%

Over 3.5 43.0% 51.8% 1.93 -17.0%

BTTS 63.3% 75.2% 1.33 -15.8%

Home O1.5 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Away O1.5 47.3% 54.1% 1.85 -12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.3%

H 49% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 1–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sogndal2.2

Sandnes ULF1.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SOGNDAL · PPG 1.62

SANDNES ULF · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sogndal (H) 48.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +0.0%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -8.5%

Sandnes ULF (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sogndal face Sandnes ULF in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sogndal a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Sandnes ULF 29%, so Sogndal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Sogndal and 1.5 for Sandnes ULF (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sogndal are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.88 for Sandnes ULF. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.2%.

Sogndal vs Sandnes ULF Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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