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Haugesund vs Raufoss Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

Haugesund

PPG 2.29 · HOME

7 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Raufoss

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-10.9%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.3%1-13.2%1-21.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.2%2 2-06.1%2-16.1%2-23.0%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.6%3-17.6%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-019.0%4+-119.0%4+-29.5%4+-33.1%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.1% 75.2% 1.33 -0.1%

Draw 16.6% 19.0% 5.25 -7.7%

Away win 8.4% 16.0% 6.25 -28.5%

Over 2.5 74.4% 82.0% 1.22 -9.2%

Over 3.5 54.1% 61.7% 1.62 -12.4%

BTTS 61.8% 72.5% 1.38 -14.7%

Home O1.5 78.3% 83.3% 1.20 -6.0%

Away O1.5 30.5% 39.2% 2.55 -22.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 80%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-2

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.8%

H 75% / xG 3.8-1.0 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 7.6%

#2 3–1 7.6%

#3 4–0 7.2%

#4 4–1 7.1%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haugesund3.8

Raufoss1.0

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.4% · O3.5 PROB 54.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HAUGESUND · PPG 2.29

RAUFOSS · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.75 for Home, form 2.29 vs 0.75 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Haugesund (H) 75.1%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -0.1%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -7.7%

Raufoss (A) 8.4%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -28.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haugesund face Raufoss in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haugesund a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Raufoss 8%, so Haugesund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Haugesund and 1.0 for Raufoss (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haugesund are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.75 for Raufoss. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 7-2.

Haugesund vs Raufoss Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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