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hodd vs Strommen Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 15:00

hodd

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Strommen

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.3%0-21.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.2%1-18.0%1-24.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.7%2-19.6%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.9%3-17.7%3-24.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-18.1%4+-24.5%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% 44.4% 2.25 +25.6%

Draw 21.9% 29.0% 3.45 -14.7%

Away win 22.3% 36.4% 2.75 -23.2%

Over 2.5 64.4% 63.7% 1.57 +1.1%

Over 3.5 42.6% 42.0% 2.38 +1.4%

BTTS 61.6% 69.0% 1.45 -10.7%

Home O1.5 63.0% 54.1% 1.85 +16.6%

Away O1.5 34.7% 47.6% 2.10 -27.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.6%

H 56% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.0%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

hodd2.4

Strommen1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HODD · PPG 2.00

STROMMEN · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.30 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

hodd (H) 55.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +25.6%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -14.7%

Strommen (A) 22.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

hodd face Strommen in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives hodd a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Strommen 22%, so hodd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for hodd and 1.1 for Strommen (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, hodd are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.88 for Strommen. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +44.3%.

hodd vs Strommen Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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