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Asane vs Kongsvinger Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

Asane

PPG 1.62 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kongsvinger

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.2% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.9%0-24.5%0-33.5%0-4+3.4%1 1-03.0%1-16.9%1-28.0%1-36.1%1-4+6.1%2 2-02.6%2-16.1%2-27.1%2-35.4%2-4+5.4%3 3-01.6%3-13.6%3-24.2%3-33.2%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-12.4%4+-22.8%4+-32.1%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 19.2% 5.20 +82.0%

Draw 21.6% 21.7% 4.60 -0.4%

Away win 43.4% 69.4% 1.44 -37.5%

Over 2.5 70.2% 80.0% 1.25 -12.3%

Over 3.5 47.5% 59.9% 1.67 -20.7%

BTTS 69.6% 74.1% 1.35 -6.0%

Home O1.5 49.2% 43.5% 2.30 +13.2%

Away O1.5 65.0% 80.0% 1.25 -18.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob69.6%

A 43% / xG 1.8-2.3 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 8.0%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–3 6.1%

#5 2–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Asane1.8

Kongsvinger2.3

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.2% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ASANE · PPG 1.62

KONGSVINGER · PPG 1.75

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.54 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Asane (H) 35.0%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +82.0%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -0.4%

Kongsvinger (A) 43.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -37.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Asane face Kongsvinger in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Asane a 35% chance, the draw 22% and Kongsvinger 43%, so Kongsvinger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Asane and 2.3 for Kongsvinger (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Asane are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.75 for Kongsvinger. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +39.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Asane vs Kongsvinger Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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