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Egersund vs Stabaek Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 15:00

Egersund

PPG 2.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Stabaek

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.5%0-26.1%0-33.3%0-4+1.9%1 1-06.7%1-110.9%1-28.8%1-34.8%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.9%2-17.9%2-26.4%2-33.5%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.4%3-13.8%3-23.1%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 35.7% 2.80 +12.6%

Draw 24.3% 26.3% 3.80 -4.6%

Away win 35.5% 47.6% 2.10 -25.4%

Over 2.5 63.0% 73.5% 1.36 -14.3%

Over 3.5 38.8% 52.4% 1.91 -25.9%

BTTS 61.6% 76.9% 1.30 -19.9%

Home O1.5 45.1% 54.6% 1.83 -17.5%

Away O1.5 47.7% 62.5% 1.60 -23.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.6%

A 36% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Egersund1.4

Stabaek1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

EGERSUND · PPG 2.11

STABAEK · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Egersund (H) 40.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +12.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.6%

Stabaek (A) 35.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -25.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Egersund face Stabaek in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Egersund a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Stabaek 36%, so Egersund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Egersund and 1.6 for Stabaek (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Egersund are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.67 for Stabaek.

Egersund vs Stabaek Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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