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Moss vs ODD Ballklubb Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 17 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 17:00

Moss

PPG 1.14 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

ODD Ballklubb

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.2%0-25.5%0-33.8%0-4+3.3%1 1-03.9%1-18.3%1-28.7%1-36.1%1-4+5.2%2 2-03.2%2-16.6%2-27.0%2-34.9%2-4+4.2%3 3-01.7%3-13.5%3-23.7%3-32.6%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-12.0%4+-22.1%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 36.4% 2.75 -12.8%

Draw 22.8% 25.6% 3.90 -6.7%

Away win 45.4% 47.6% 2.10 -4.7%

Over 2.5 67.2% 74.1% 1.35 -9.3%

Over 3.5 43.0% 54.1% 1.85 -20.4%

BTTS 63.3% 76.9% 1.30 -17.7%

Home O1.5 47.2% 55.6% 1.80 -15.0%

Away O1.5 56.5% 63.7% 1.57 -11.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.3%

A 45% / xG 1.6-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 2–1 6.6%

#5 1–3 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moss1.6

ODD Ballklubb2.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MOSS · PPG 1.14

ODD BALLKLUBB · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.51 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Moss (H) 31.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -12.8%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -6.7%

ODD Ballklubb (A) 45.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Moss face ODD Ballklubb in Norway - 1st Division on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moss a 32% chance, the draw 23% and ODD Ballklubb 45%, so ODD Ballklubb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Moss and 2.1 for ODD Ballklubb (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moss are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.57 for ODD Ballklubb. This match finished 3-3.

Moss vs ODD Ballklubb Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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