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Kongsvinger vs Haugesund Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 15:00

Kongsvinger

PPG 2.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Haugesund

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 82.1% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.0%0-21.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-01.5%1-13.3%1-23.5%1-32.6%1-4+2.3%2 2-02.4%2-15.2%2-25.6%2-34.1%2-4+3.7%3 3-02.5%3-15.5%3-26.0%3-34.3%3-4+3.9%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-19.8%4+-210.6%4+-37.7%4+-4+6.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.3% 52.6% 1.90 +3.2%

Draw 16.9% 23.8% 4.20 -17.4%

Away win 28.8% 32.3% 3.10 -6.4%

Over 2.5 82.1% 82.0% 1.22 +0.2%

Over 3.5 64.7% 65.4% 1.53 -1.0%

BTTS 70.3% 83.3% 1.20 -15.6%

Home O1.5 80.3% 74.1% 1.35 +8.4%

Away O1.5 56.5% 60.6% 1.65 -6.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob70.3%

H 54% / xG 3.2-2.2 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 6.0%

#2 2–2 5.6%

#3 3–1 5.5%

#4 2–1 5.2%

#5 4–2 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kongsvinger3.2

Haugesund2.2

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.1% · O3.5 PROB 64.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KONGSVINGER · PPG 2.38

HAUGESUND · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kongsvinger (H) 54.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +3.2%

Draw 16.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -17.4%

Haugesund (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kongsvinger face Haugesund in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kongsvinger a 54% chance, the draw 17% and Haugesund 29%, so Kongsvinger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Kongsvinger and 2.2 for Haugesund (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kongsvinger are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 2.00 for Haugesund. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +8.4%.

Kongsvinger vs Haugesund Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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