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Ranheim vs Stromsgodset Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

Ranheim

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Stromsgodset

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 82.1% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.5%0-21.9%0-31.6%0-4+2.0%1 1-01.5%1-13.9%1-24.9%1-34.2%1-4+5.0%2 2-01.9%2-15.0%2-26.4%2-35.5%2-4+6.5%3 3-01.7%3-14.3%3-25.5%3-34.7%3-4+5.6%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-15.1%4+-26.6%4+-35.6%4+-4+6.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.8% 25.3% 3.95 +65.1%

Draw 19.3% 23.1% 4.33 -9.9%

Away win 38.9% 61.0% 1.64 -36.2%

Over 2.5 82.1% 82.0% 1.22 +0.2%

Over 3.5 64.1% 63.7% 1.57 +0.6%

BTTS 70.3% 80.0% 1.25 -12.1%

Home O1.5 63.4% 54.1% 1.85 +17.3%

Away O1.5 64.9% 76.9% 1.30 -15.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob70.3%

H 42% / xG 2.6-2.6 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.4%

#2 3–2 5.5%

#3 2–3 5.5%

#4 2–1 5.0%

#5 1–2 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ranheim2.6

Stromsgodset2.6

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.1% · O3.5 PROB 64.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RANHEIM · PPG 1.89

STROMSGODSET · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ranheim (H) 41.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +65.1%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -9.9%

Stromsgodset (A) 38.9%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -36.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ranheim face Stromsgodset in Norway - 1st Division on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ranheim a 42% chance, the draw 19% and Stromsgodset 39%, so Ranheim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Ranheim and 2.6 for Stromsgodset (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ranheim are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.50 for Stromsgodset. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +68.4%.

Ranheim vs Stromsgodset Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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