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Zamora vs Caracas Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - 12 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 21:00

Zamora

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Caracas

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+12.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-18.7%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.8%1-112.3%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-18.7%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.3%3-14.1%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 46.5% 2.15 +12.2%

Draw 27.3% 33.3% 3.00 -18.1%

Away win 20.5% 30.3% 3.30 -32.4%

Over 2.5 37.5% 43.5% 2.30 -13.8%

Over 3.5 17.9% 23.1% 4.33 -22.5%

BTTS 40.8% 51.8% 1.93 -21.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob40.8%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.8%

#2 1–1✓ 12.3%

#3 2–0 11.2%

#4 0–0 11.2%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zamora1.4

Caracas0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.5% · O3.5 PROB 17.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ZAMORA · PPG 1.60

CARACAS · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Zamora (H) 52.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +12.2%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -18.1%

Caracas (A) 20.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -32.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zamora face Caracas in Venezuela - Primera División on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zamora a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Caracas 21%, so Zamora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Zamora and 0.8 for Caracas (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zamora are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.80 for Caracas. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Zamora vs Caracas Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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