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Heerenveen vs Twente Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:45

Heerenveen

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Twente

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.8%0-24.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.4%1-110.4%1-27.3%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.9%3-15.5%3-23.8%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.6%4+-22.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 35.5% 2.82 +36.5%

Draw 23.2% 26.7% 3.75 -7.8%

Away win 28.4% 45.0% 2.22 -22.2%

Over 2.5 63.4% 67.6% 1.48 -6.2%

Over 3.5 39.5% 46.5% 2.15 -15.1%

BTTS 62.1% 71.4% 1.40 -13.1%

Home O1.5 49.2% 50.0% 2.00 -1.6%

Away O1.5 43.7% 56.5% 1.77 -22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.1%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heerenveen1.8

Twente1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HEERENVEEN · PPG 1.67

TWENTE · PPG 1.52

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Heerenveen (H) 48.4%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV +36.5%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -7.8%

Twente (A) 28.4%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heerenveen face Twente in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heerenveen a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Twente 28%, so Heerenveen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Heerenveen and 1.4 for Twente (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heerenveen are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.52 for Twente. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Heerenveen vs Twente Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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