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Groningen vs Utrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 12:30

Groningen

PPG 1.48 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Utrecht

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.0%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.8%1-111.5%1-26.8%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.5%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.4%3-15.2%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 43.5% 2.30 +12.7%

Draw 24.6% 29.0% 3.45 -9.1%

Away win 26.4% 34.7% 2.88 -14.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Over 3.5 32.7% 33.3% 3.00 -1.9%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 47.5% 47.6% 2.10 -0.3%

Away O1.5 35.4% 41.7% 2.40 -15.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1✓ 9.5%

#3 1–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 8.1%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Groningen1.6

Utrecht1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GRONINGEN · PPG 1.48

UTRECHT · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Groningen (H) 49.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +12.7%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.1%

Utrecht (A) 26.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Groningen face Utrecht in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Groningen a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Utrecht 26%, so Groningen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Groningen and 1.2 for Utrecht (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Groningen are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.29 for Utrecht. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Groningen vs Utrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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