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Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 10:15

Sparta Rotterdam

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Feyenoord

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-17.2%0-25.9%0-33.2%0-4+1.9%1 1-06.6%1-110.7%1-28.7%1-34.7%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.9%2-18.0%2-26.5%2-33.5%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.4%3-14.0%3-23.2%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 22.5% 4.45 +62.9%

Draw 24.9% 24.4% 4.10 +1.3%

Away win 38.5% 59.9% 1.67 -35.7%

Over 2.5 61.8% 65.4% 1.53 -5.5%

Over 3.5 38.3% 42.6% 2.35 -10.0%

BTTS 61.8% 65.4% 1.53 -5.5%

Home O1.5 45.4% 36.4% 2.75 +24.9%

Away O1.5 48.2% 64.5% 1.55 -25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.8%

A 38% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sparta Rotterdam1.5

Feyenoord1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.8% · O3.5 PROB 38.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTA ROTTERDAM · PPG 1.40

FEYENOORD · PPG 1.64

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sparta Rotterdam (H) 36.6%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +62.9%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +1.3%

Feyenoord (A) 38.5%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -35.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sparta Rotterdam face Feyenoord in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Feyenoord 39%, so Feyenoord are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.6 for Feyenoord (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.64 for Feyenoord. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +33.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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