Today / Netherlands - Eredivisie / NEC Nijmegen vs Telstar

NEC Nijmegen vs Telstar Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:30

NEC Nijmegen

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Telstar

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.6%0-22.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.0%1-18.3%1-25.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-19.6%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.2%3-17.4%3-24.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-17.3%4+-24.3%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 68.5% 1.46 -17.5%

Draw 22.3% 21.3% 4.70 +2.9%

Away win 21.1% 17.2% 5.80 +13.4%

Over 2.5 64.9% 69.4% 1.44 -6.5%

Over 3.5 43.0% 47.6% 2.10 -9.7%

BTTS 61.8% 64.5% 1.55 -4.2%

Home O1.5 62.4% 72.5% 1.38 -13.9%

Away O1.5 35.5% 33.3% 3.00 +6.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.8%

H 56% / xG 2.3-1.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.3%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 3–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NEC Nijmegen2.3

Telstar1.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NEC NIJMEGEN · PPG 1.75

TELSTAR · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

NEC Nijmegen (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.46 · IMPLIED 68.5% EV -17.5%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +2.9%

Telstar (A) 21.1%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

NEC Nijmegen face Telstar in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NEC Nijmegen a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Telstar 21%, so NEC Nijmegen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.2 for Telstar (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.17 for Telstar. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.1%. This match finished 1-2.

NEC Nijmegen vs Telstar Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

More Netherlands - Eredivisie Predictions