Today / Netherlands - Eredivisie / Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam

Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 18:00

Telstar

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sparta Rotterdam

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-14.6%0-22.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.9%1-19.6%1-25.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.4%3-16.9%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-15.7%4+-23.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 44.6% 2.24 +24.1%

Draw 22.5% 27.0% 3.70 -10.1%

Away win 22.1% 35.2% 2.84 -22.3%

Over 2.5 62.6% 63.7% 1.57 -1.7%

Over 3.5 38.7% 41.7% 2.40 -7.1%

BTTS 59.4% 67.6% 1.48 -12.1%

Home O1.5 59.8% 54.1% 1.85 +10.6%

Away O1.5 33.7% 47.6% 2.10 -29.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.4%

H 55% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Telstar2.1

Sparta Rotterdam1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TELSTAR · PPG 1.29

SPARTA ROTTERDAM · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Telstar (H) 55.4%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV +24.1%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.1%

Sparta Rotterdam (A) 22.1%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV -22.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Telstar face Sparta Rotterdam in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Telstar a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Sparta Rotterdam 22%, so Telstar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Telstar and 1.1 for Sparta Rotterdam (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Telstar are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.29 for Sparta Rotterdam. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +14.1%.

Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

More Netherlands - Eredivisie Predictions