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PEC Zwolle vs Ajax Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 12:30

PEC Zwolle

PPG 1.60 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ajax

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-17.3%0-25.7%0-33.0%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.0%1-111.0%1-28.5%1-34.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.2%2-26.4%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.6%3-14.1%3-23.2%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 16.1% 6.20 +148.6%

Draw 25.0% 22.2% 4.50 +7.5%

Away win 34.9% 68.5% 1.46 -49.0%

Over 2.5 60.4% 69.0% 1.45 -12.4%

Over 3.5 37.4% 47.6% 2.10 -21.5%

BTTS 61.8% 64.5% 1.55 -4.2%

Home O1.5 45.4% 33.3% 3.00 +36.2%

Away O1.5 48.2% 71.4% 1.40 -32.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.8%

A 35% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PEC Zwolle1.5

Ajax1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PEC ZWOLLE · PPG 1.60

AJAX · PPG 1.48

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

PEC Zwolle (H) 40.1%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +148.6%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +7.5%

Ajax (A) 34.9%

ODDS 1.46 · IMPLIED 68.5% EV -49.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

PEC Zwolle face Ajax in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PEC Zwolle a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Ajax 35%, so PEC Zwolle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for PEC Zwolle and 1.6 for Ajax (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.48 for Ajax. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +63.7%. This match finished 0-2.

PEC Zwolle vs Ajax Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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