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Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:30

Kalmar FF

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hammarby FF

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-19.8%0-27.0%0-33.4%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.5%1-112.2%1-28.8%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.3%2-17.6%2-25.5%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.2%3-13.2%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% 25.3% 3.95 +48.1%

Draw 25.8% 26.7% 3.75 -1.9%

Away win 36.8% 55.6% 1.80 -33.8%

Over 2.5 53.7% 59.9% 1.67 -10.3%

Over 3.5 31.8% 37.7% 2.65 -15.7%

BTTS 54.5% 63.7% 1.57 -14.4%

Home O1.5 35.8% 36.4% 2.75 -1.6%

Away O1.5 42.6% 57.8% 1.73 -26.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -2.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.5%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 0–0 6.8%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kalmar FF1.3

Hammarby FF1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KALMAR FF · PPG 2.12

HAMMARBY FF · PPG 1.14

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kalmar FF (H) 37.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +48.1%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.9%

Hammarby FF (A) 36.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -33.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kalmar FF face Hammarby FF in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kalmar FF a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Hammarby FF 37%, so Kalmar FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kalmar FF and 1.4 for Hammarby FF (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kalmar FF are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.14 for Hammarby FF. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.2%.

Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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