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IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 12:00

IF Brommapojkarna

PPG 0.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orgryte IS

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.1%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.1%1-19.0%1-25.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.9%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.5%3-17.2%3-24.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-16.5%4+-23.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Draw 22.8% 26.0% 3.85 -7.3%

Away win 23.4% 26.0% 3.85 -5.9%

Over 2.5 63.1% 63.7% 1.57 -0.9%

Over 3.5 38.8% 40.8% 2.45 -4.9%

BTTS 60.4% 66.7% 1.50 -9.4%

Home O1.5 63.0% 60.6% 1.65 +4.0%

Away O1.5 34.7% 39.2% 2.55 -11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -2.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.4%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IF Brommapojkarna2.2

Orgryte IS1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

IF BROMMAPOJKARNA · PPG 0.86

ORGRYTE IS · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.08 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

IF Brommapojkarna (H) 53.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -3.2%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -7.3%

Orgryte IS (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

IF Brommapojkarna face Orgryte IS in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Orgryte IS 23%, so IF Brommapojkarna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.1 for Orgryte IS (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.75 for Orgryte IS. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.0%.

IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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