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IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 17:00

IF Elfsborg

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vasteras SK FK

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-15.8%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.8%1-110.7%1-25.9%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.5%3-16.1%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.2%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 52.6% 1.90 +0.5%

Draw 23.2% 26.7% 3.75 -7.8%

Away win 23.9% 27.4% 3.65 -7.7%

Over 2.5 59.5% 57.1% 1.75 +4.1%

Over 3.5 36.5% 34.7% 2.88 +5.1%

BTTS 58.4% 61.7% 1.62 -5.4%

Home O1.5 54.6% 55.6% 1.80 -1.7%

Away O1.5 34.7% 36.4% 2.75 -4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -5.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.4%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IF Elfsborg1.8

Vasteras SK FK1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

IF ELFSBORG · PPG 1.50

VASTERAS SK FK · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

IF Elfsborg (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +0.5%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -7.8%

Vasteras SK FK (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

IF Elfsborg face Vasteras SK FK in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IF Elfsborg a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Vasteras SK FK 24%, so IF Elfsborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for IF Elfsborg and 1.1 for Vasteras SK FK (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.62 for Vasteras SK FK. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.1%.

IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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