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Mjallby AIF vs Sirius Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:00

Mjallby AIF

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sirius

PPG 2.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-19.0%0-28.8%0-35.7%0-4+4.3%1 1-05.2%1-110.1%1-29.9%1-36.4%1-4+4.9%2 2-02.9%2-15.7%2-25.6%2-33.6%2-4+2.7%3 3-01.1%3-12.1%3-22.1%3-31.4%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.1% 31.3% 3.20 -15.7%

Draw 21.8% 27.0% 3.70 -11.6%

Away win 55.2% 48.8% 2.05 +13.2%

Over 2.5 59.5% 59.9% 1.67 -0.6%

Over 3.5 36.5% 37.0% 2.70 -1.5%

BTTS 54.5% 64.5% 1.55 -15.5%

Home O1.5 30.2% 41.7% 2.40 -27.5%

Away O1.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -5.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob54.5%

A 55% / xG 1.1-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 8.8%

#4 0–1 9.0%

#5 1–3 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mjallby AIF1.1

Sirius1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MJALLBY AIF · PPG 1.00

SIRIUS · PPG 2.75

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.82 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Mjallby AIF (H) 23.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.7%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -11.6%

Sirius (A) 55.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mjallby AIF face Sirius in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mjallby AIF a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Sirius 55%, so Sirius are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Mjallby AIF and 1.9 for Sirius (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.75 for Sirius. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +1.3%.

Mjallby AIF vs Sirius Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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