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Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 12:00

Malmo FF

PPG 1.29 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Degerfors IF

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.2% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.2%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.2%1-17.8%1-23.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-19.5%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.1%3-17.7%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-18.4%4+-24.0%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.3% 67.6% 1.48 -6.3%

Draw 20.3% 23.1% 4.33 -7.3%

Away win 16.3% 16.7% 6.00 -1.3%

Over 2.5 65.2% 59.9% 1.67 +8.9%

Over 3.5 43.0% 37.7% 2.65 +14.0%

BTTS 59.9% 57.8% 1.73 +3.6%

Home O1.5 62.4% 65.4% 1.53 -4.5%

Away O1.5 27.7% 27.0% 3.70 +1.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -5.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.9%

H 63% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.8%

#4 3–0 8.1%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malmo FF2.4

Degerfors IF1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MALMO FF · PPG 1.29

DEGERFORS IF · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.47 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Malmo FF (H) 63.3%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -6.3%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -7.3%

Degerfors IF (A) 16.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Malmo FF face Degerfors IF in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malmo FF a 63% chance, the draw 20% and Degerfors IF 16%, so Malmo FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Malmo FF and 1.0 for Degerfors IF (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malmo FF are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.71 for Degerfors IF. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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