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Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 12:00

Hammarby FF

PPG 2.38 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

BK Hacken

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.3%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.4%1-18.0%1-24.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.9%2-19.6%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.1%3-17.7%3-24.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-18.1%4+-24.3%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.9% 65.4% 1.53 -12.9%

Draw 22.2% 22.2% 4.50 -0.1%

Away win 20.9% 19.0% 5.25 +5.8%

Over 2.5 63.8% 72.5% 1.38 -12.0%

Over 3.5 43.0% 52.6% 1.90 -18.3%

BTTS 61.8% 71.4% 1.40 -13.5%

Home O1.5 62.4% 73.5% 1.36 -15.1%

Away O1.5 35.4% 39.2% 2.55 -9.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -5.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.8%

H 57% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.0%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 3–0✓ 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hammarby FF2.4

BK Hacken1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMMARBY FF · PPG 2.38

BK HACKEN · PPG 1.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.32 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hammarby FF (H) 56.9%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -12.9%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -0.1%

BK Hacken (A) 20.9%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hammarby FF face BK Hacken in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hammarby FF a 57% chance, the draw 22% and BK Hacken 21%, so Hammarby FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Hammarby FF and 1.1 for BK Hacken (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hammarby FF are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.71 for BK Hacken. This match finished 3-0.

Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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