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Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 12:00

Degerfors IF

PPG 0.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

IFK Goteborg

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.0%0-24.9%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.0%1-111.2%1-27.8%1-33.6%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-18.9%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.4%3-14.8%3-23.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 34.5% 2.90 +32.8%

Draw 24.4% 29.4% 3.40 -10.2%

Away win 29.8% 43.5% 2.30 -18.9%

Over 2.5 61.3% 52.4% 1.91 +17.1%

Over 3.5 38.7% 30.3% 3.30 +27.7%

BTTS 61.6% 59.9% 1.67 +2.9%

Home O1.5 47.2% 39.2% 2.55 +20.4%

Away O1.5 42.6% 45.5% 2.20 -6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -2.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.6%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Degerfors IF1.6

IFK Goteborg1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEGERFORS IF · PPG 0.62

IFK GOTEBORG · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Degerfors IF (H) 45.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +32.8%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.2%

IFK Goteborg (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Degerfors IF face IFK Goteborg in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Degerfors IF a 46% chance, the draw 24% and IFK Goteborg 30%, so Degerfors IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Degerfors IF and 1.4 for IFK Goteborg (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Degerfors IF are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 1.00 for IFK Goteborg. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +27.7%.

Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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