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Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 12:00

Djurgardens IF

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

AIK Stockholm

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-13.7%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.2%1-18.5%1-24.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-19.7%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.3%3-17.5%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-17.4%4+-23.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 66.7% 1.50 -13.6%

Draw 21.1% 22.7% 4.40 -4.3%

Away win 21.4% 17.2% 5.80 +14.5%

Over 2.5 63.7% 65.4% 1.53 -2.5%

Over 3.5 42.1% 43.5% 2.30 -3.2%

BTTS 60.8% 63.7% 1.57 -4.5%

Home O1.5 63.0% 69.0% 1.45 -8.6%

Away O1.5 31.6% 31.3% 3.20 +1.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -2.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.8%

H 58% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.7%

#2 1–1 8.5%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 3–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Djurgardens IF2.3

AIK Stockholm1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DJURGARDENS IF · PPG 1.62

AIK STOCKHOLM · PPG 1.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.28 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Djurgardens IF (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -13.6%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -4.3%

AIK Stockholm (A) 21.4%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Djurgardens IF face AIK Stockholm in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Djurgardens IF a 58% chance, the draw 21% and AIK Stockholm 21%, so Djurgardens IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Djurgardens IF and 1.0 for AIK Stockholm (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.78 for AIK Stockholm. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.9%.

Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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