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Gais vs Malmo FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:30

Gais

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Malmo FF

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-17.4%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.3%1-111.9%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.5%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.3%3-15.1%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 46.5% 2.15 +9.0%

Draw 25.0% 27.8% 3.60 -6.0%

Away win 24.3% 33.3% 3.00 -16.3%

Over 2.5 50.4% 59.9% 1.67 -15.8%

Over 3.5 29.9% 37.7% 2.65 -12.5%

BTTS 53.1% 65.4% 1.53 -18.8%

Home O1.5 47.2% 52.4% 1.91 -9.8%

Away O1.5 26.3% 43.5% 2.30 -23.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -2.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gais1.6

Malmo FF1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GAIS · PPG 1.88

MALMO FF · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gais (H) 50.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +9.0%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.0%

Malmo FF (A) 24.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gais face Malmo FF in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gais a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Malmo FF 24%, so Gais are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Gais and 1.0 for Malmo FF (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gais are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.75 for Malmo FF.

Gais vs Malmo FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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