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Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 16 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 17:00

Vasteras SK FK

PPG 1.29 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Djurgardens IF

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-17.4%0-27.5%0-35.1%0-4+4.1%1 1-04.7%1-19.5%1-29.6%1-36.5%1-4+5.3%2 2-03.0%2-16.1%2-26.2%2-34.2%2-4+3.4%3 3-01.3%3-12.6%3-22.6%3-31.8%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.2% 25.3% 3.95 +9.2%

Draw 22.1% 26.7% 3.75 -10.3%

Away win 48.8% 54.6% 1.83 -10.7%

Over 2.5 63.1% 63.7% 1.57 -0.9%

Over 3.5 40.1% 41.7% 2.40 -3.8%

BTTS 61.6% 66.7% 1.50 -7.6%

Home O1.5 37.9% 39.2% 2.55 -3.4%

Away O1.5 53.8% 60.6% 1.65 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -5.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob61.6%

A 49% / xG 1.3-2.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.5%

#4 1–3 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasteras SK FK1.3

Djurgardens IF2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VASTERAS SK FK · PPG 1.29

DJURGARDENS IF · PPG 2.17

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.75 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Vasteras SK FK (H) 29.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +9.2%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.3%

Djurgardens IF (A) 48.8%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasteras SK FK face Djurgardens IF in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasteras SK FK a 29% chance, the draw 22% and Djurgardens IF 49%, so Djurgardens IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vasteras SK FK and 2.0 for Djurgardens IF (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 2.17 for Djurgardens IF. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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