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Skjervøy vs Fløya Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:00

Skjervøy

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fløya

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.7%0-24.2%0-33.3%0-4+3.2%1 1-02.9%1-16.7%1-27.8%1-36.0%1-4+6.0%2 2-02.7%2-16.2%2-27.1%2-35.5%2-4+5.5%3 3-01.6%3-13.8%3-24.3%3-33.3%3-4+3.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.6%4+-23.0%4+-32.3%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% — — —

Draw 21.8% — — —

Away win 42.0% — — —

Over 2.5 71.6% — — —

Over 3.5 49.4% — — —

BTTS 69.4% — — —

Home O1.5 52.7% — — —

Away O1.5 64.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 86%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 19%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob69.4%

A 42% / xG 1.8-2.3 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.8%

#2 1–1 6.7%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.2%

#5 1–3 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skjervøy1.8

Fløya2.3

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SKJERVØY · PPG 1.71

FLØYA · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Skjervøy (H) 36.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fløya (A) 42.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Skjervøy face Fløya in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skjervøy a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Fløya 42%, so Fløya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Skjervøy and 2.3 for Fløya (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skjervøy are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.43 for Fløya.

Skjervøy vs Fløya Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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