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Ulfstind vs Skjetten Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 12:00

Ulfstind

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Skjetten

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.6%0-23.3%0-32.8%0-4+3.4%1 1-02.0%1-15.2%1-26.7%1-35.8%1-4+6.9%2 2-02.0%2-15.3%2-26.8%2-35.9%2-4+7.0%3 3-01.4%3-13.6%3-24.6%3-34.0%3-4+4.8%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.9%4+-23.8%4+-33.2%4+-4+3.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% — — —

Draw 20.7% — — —

Away win 44.3% — — —

Over 2.5 74.4% — — —

Over 3.5 54.6% — — —

BTTS 69.4% — — —

Home O1.5 56.0% — — —

Away O1.5 64.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 86%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 19%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob69.4%

A 44% / xG 2.0-2.6 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.8%

#2 1–2 6.7%

#3 1–1 5.2%

#4 2–3 5.9%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulfstind2.0

Skjetten2.6

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.4% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ULFSTIND · PPG 1.00

SKJETTEN · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.55 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Ulfstind (H) 35.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Skjetten (A) 44.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulfstind face Skjetten in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulfstind a 35% chance, the draw 21% and Skjetten 44%, so Skjetten are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Ulfstind and 2.6 for Skjetten (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulfstind are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.86 for Skjetten.

Ulfstind vs Skjetten Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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