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Tromsø II vs Alta Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:00

Tromsø II

PPG 0.71 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Alta

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-17.6%0-25.9%0-33.0%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.2%1-111.1%1-28.6%1-34.5%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.2%2-26.3%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.6%3-14.0%3-23.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 35.6% — — —

Over 2.5 63.4% — — —

Over 3.5 39.5% — — —

BTTS 62.9% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 48.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 86%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 19%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.9%

A 36% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–0 4.9%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tromsø II1.5

Alta1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TROMSØ II · PPG 0.71

ALTA · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tromsø II (H) 40.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Alta (A) 35.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tromsø II face Alta in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tromsø II a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Alta 36%, so Tromsø II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Tromsø II and 1.5 for Alta (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tromsø II are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 0.86 for Alta. This match finished 3-0.

Tromsø II vs Alta Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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