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Fauske Sprint vs Finnsnes Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 11:00

Fauske Sprint

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Finnsnes

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.3%0-22.6%0-31.9%0-4+1.9%1 1-02.4%1-15.3%1-26.0%1-34.5%1-4+4.3%2 2-02.8%2-16.2%2-27.0%2-35.3%2-4+5.1%3 3-02.2%3-14.9%3-25.5%3-34.1%3-4+3.9%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-14.9%4+-25.6%4+-34.2%4+-4+4.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% — — —

Draw 21.3% — — —

Away win 34.3% — — —

Over 2.5 72.5% — — —

Over 3.5 53.8% — — —

BTTS 69.4% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 64.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 86%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 19%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob69.4%

H 44% / xG 2.3-2.3 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.0%

#2 2–1 6.2%

#3 1–1 5.3%

#4 1–2 6.0%

#5 3–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fauske Sprint2.3

Finnsnes2.3

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.5% · O3.5 PROB 53.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FAUSKE SPRINT · PPG 1.57

FINNSNES · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fauske Sprint (H) 44.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Finnsnes (A) 34.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fauske Sprint face Finnsnes in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fauske Sprint a 44% chance, the draw 21% and Finnsnes 34%, so Fauske Sprint are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Fauske Sprint and 2.3 for Finnsnes (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fauske Sprint are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.43 for Finnsnes.

Fauske Sprint vs Finnsnes Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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