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SJK vs Gnistan Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 19 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 16:00

SJK

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gnistan

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.8%0-25.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.6%1-112.9%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.6%2-18.5%2-24.7%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.3%3-13.7%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 46.7% 2.14 -4.6%

Draw 26.9% 28.2% 3.55 -2.7%

Away win 28.5% 34.0% 2.94 -9.7%

Over 2.5 50.3% 64.5% 1.55 -22.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 42.0% 2.38 -18.9%

BTTS 53.1% 69.0% 1.45 -23.0%

Home O1.5 37.4% 55.6% 1.80 -32.7%

Away O1.5 35.4% 46.5% 2.15 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 20.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SJK1.3

Gnistan1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SJK · PPG 1.22

GNISTAN · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 2.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SJK (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV -4.6%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.7%

Gnistan (A) 28.5%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

SJK face Gnistan in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SJK a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Gnistan 28%, so SJK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for SJK and 1.1 for Gnistan (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SJK are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.33 for Gnistan.

SJK vs Gnistan Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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