Today / Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura / Boston River vs Cerro Largo

Boston River vs Cerro Largo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 12 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 20:00

Boston River

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Cerro Largo

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-112.8%0-25.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.6%1-113.5%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.7%2-17.1%2-23.3%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.7%3-12.5%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 42.4% 2.36 -10.6%

Draw 31.0% 33.3% 3.00 -7.0%

Away win 31.2% 33.3% 3.00 -6.4%

Over 2.5 31.7% 40.8% 2.45 -22.3%

Over 3.5 13.9% 21.1% 4.75 -34.0%

BTTS 39.2% 50.0% 2.00 -21.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob39.2%

D 31% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 14.6%

#2 0–0 13.9%

#3 1–1 13.5%

#4 0–1 12.8%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boston River1.1

Cerro Largo0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.7% · O3.5 PROB 13.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BOSTON RIVER · PPG 0.67

CERRO LARGO · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.67) vs Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Boston River (H) 37.9%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV -10.6%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.0%

Cerro Largo (A) 31.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boston River face Cerro Largo in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boston River a 38% chance, the draw 31% and Cerro Largo 31%, so Boston River are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Boston River and 0.9 for Cerro Largo (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boston River are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.17 for Cerro Largo. This match finished 1-0.

Boston River vs Cerro Largo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura Predictions