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Moreirense vs Estoril Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 19:15

Moreirense

PPG 1.43 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Estoril

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+12.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-15.3%0-24.4%0-32.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-05.7%1-19.4%1-27.9%1-34.4%1-4+2.7%2 2-05.0%2-18.4%2-27.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.0%3-15.0%3-24.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.3%4+-22.8%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.0% 32.3% 3.10 +27.1%

Draw 22.4% 29.9% 3.35 -25.0%

Away win 36.6% 45.0% 2.22 -18.8%

Over 2.5 66.9% 54.1% 1.85 +23.8%

Over 3.5 45.2% 31.3% 3.20 +44.6%

BTTS 67.4% 59.9% 1.67 +12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob67.4%

H 41% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 1–0✓ 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moreirense1.8

Estoril1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MOREIRENSE · PPG 1.43

ESTORIL · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.43) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Moreirense (H) 41.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +27.1%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -25.0%

Estoril (A) 36.6%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Moreirense face Estoril in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moreirense a 41% chance, the draw 22% and Estoril 37%, so Moreirense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Moreirense and 1.7 for Estoril (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moreirense are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.00 for Estoril. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +44.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Moreirense vs Estoril Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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