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Lecce vs Fiorentina Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 33 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 18:45

Lecce

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Fiorentina

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-114.9%0-28.2%0-33.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.2%1-113.4%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.5%2-16.0%2-23.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.6%3-11.8%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.5% 30.8% 3.25 -4.1%

Draw 30.7% 30.8% 3.25 -0.2%

Away win 39.8% 45.5% 2.20 -12.4%

Over 2.5 32.1% 47.6% 2.10 -32.6%

Over 3.5 14.1% 26.0% 3.85 -45.7%

BTTS 39.4% 54.1% 1.85 -27.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob39.4%

A 40% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.9%

#2 0–0 13.7%

#3 1–1✓ 13.4%

#4 1–0 12.2%

#5 0–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lecce0.9

Fiorentina1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.1% · O3.5 PROB 14.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LECCE · PPG 1.00

FIORENTINA · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Lecce (H) 29.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -4.1%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -0.2%

Fiorentina (A) 39.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lecce face Fiorentina in Italy - Serie A on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lecce a 30% chance, the draw 31% and Fiorentina 40%, so Fiorentina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Lecce and 1.1 for Fiorentina (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lecce are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.06 for Fiorentina. This match finished 1-1.

Lecce vs Fiorentina Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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