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BIT vs Changchun Xidu Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 11:00

BIT

PPG 0.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Changchun Xidu

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-111.7%0-25.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.9%1-113.4%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.0%2-17.7%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.1%3-12.9%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% — — —

Draw 29.1% — — —

Away win 30.2% — — —

Over 2.5 42.7% — — —

Over 3.5 21.1% — — —

BTTS 48.7% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 26.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 15.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.7%

H 41% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 13.9%

#4 0–1 11.7%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BIT1.1

Changchun Xidu1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BIT · PPG 0.60

CHANGCHUN XIDU · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 2.11 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

BIT (H) 40.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Changchun Xidu (A) 30.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

BIT face Changchun Xidu in China - League Two on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BIT a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Changchun Xidu 30%, so BIT are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for BIT and 1.0 for Changchun Xidu (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BIT are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 0.80 for Changchun Xidu.

BIT vs Changchun Xidu Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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