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Shangyu Pterosaur vs Guangzhou Dandelion Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 11:30

Shangyu Pterosaur

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guangzhou Dandelion

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-19.6%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.6%1-112.8%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.7%2-18.6%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.3%3-13.8%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% — — —

Draw 27.3% — — —

Away win 24.2% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 37.9% — — —

Away O1.5 23.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 15.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 14.6%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shangyu Pterosaur1.3

Guangzhou Dandelion0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANGYU PTEROSAUR · PPG 1.40

GUANGZHOU DANDELION · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Shangyu Pterosaur (H) 48.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Guangzhou Dandelion (A) 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Shangyu Pterosaur face Guangzhou Dandelion in China - League Two on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shangyu Pterosaur a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Guangzhou Dandelion 24%, so Shangyu Pterosaur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Shangyu Pterosaur and 0.9 for Guangzhou Dandelion (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shangyu Pterosaur are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Guangzhou Dandelion.

Shangyu Pterosaur vs Guangzhou Dandelion Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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