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Nanjing City vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 11:30

Nanjing City

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.5%0-24.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.1%1-111.1%1-26.8%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.5%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.4%3-15.4%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.4%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% — — —

Draw 23.3% — — —

Away win 27.9% — — —

Over 2.5 61.0% — — —

Over 3.5 38.7% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.6%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nanjing City1.7

Heilongjiang Lava Spring1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NANJING CITY · PPG 1.56

HEILONGJIANG LAVA SPRING · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nanjing City (H) 48.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Heilongjiang Lava Spring (A) 27.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nanjing City face Heilongjiang Lava Spring in China - League One on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nanjing City a 49% chance, the draw 23% and Heilongjiang Lava Spring 28%, so Nanjing City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Nanjing City and 1.2 for Heilongjiang Lava Spring (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nanjing City are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.22 for Heilongjiang Lava Spring.

Nanjing City vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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