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Guangxi Hengchen vs Meizhou Kejia Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 11:30

Guangxi Hengchen

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Meizhou Kejia

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.52 for Home, form 2.25 vs 1.11 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.3%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.9%1-17.9%1-23.5%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.8%2-19.5%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.6%3-17.7%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-18.2%4+-23.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.4% — — —

Draw 19.6% — — —

Away win 15.0% — — —

Over 2.5 63.5% — — —

Over 3.5 41.6% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 23.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -21.6%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 65% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.9%

#4 3–0 8.6%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guangxi Hengchen2.4

Meizhou Kejia0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.5% · O3.5 PROB 41.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GUANGXI HENGCHEN · PPG 2.25

MEIZHOU KEJIA · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.52 for Home, form 2.25 vs 1.11 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Guangxi Hengchen (H) 65.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Meizhou Kejia (A) 15.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Guangxi Hengchen face Meizhou Kejia in China - League One on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guangxi Hengchen a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Meizhou Kejia 15%, so Guangxi Hengchen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Guangxi Hengchen and 0.9 for Meizhou Kejia (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guangxi Hengchen are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.11 for Meizhou Kejia.

Guangxi Hengchen vs Meizhou Kejia Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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