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Dongguan United vs Hebei Kungfu Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 11:30

Dongguan United

PPG 0.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hebei Kungfu

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.07, combined xG 2.12 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-112.3%0-26.3%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.2%1-113.5%1-26.9%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.2%2-17.4%2-23.8%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.6%3-12.7%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% — — —

Draw 29.0% — — —

Away win 34.5% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 26.4% — — —

BTTS 50.2% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 31.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.2%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.0%

#3 1–0 13.2%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dongguan United1.1

Hebei Kungfu1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DONGGUAN UNITED · PPG 0.22

HEBEI KUNGFU · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.07, combined xG 2.12 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dongguan United (H) 36.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hebei Kungfu (A) 34.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Dongguan United face Hebei Kungfu in China - League One on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dongguan United a 37% chance, the draw 29% and Hebei Kungfu 35%, so Dongguan United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Dongguan United and 1.0 for Hebei Kungfu (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dongguan United are averaging 0.22 points per game versus 0.38 for Hebei Kungfu.

Dongguan United vs Hebei Kungfu Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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