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Shaanxi Union vs Changchun Yatai Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 19 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 11:30

Shaanxi Union

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Changchun Yatai

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-15.1%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.8%1-110.1%1-24.7%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.0%3-16.5%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-15.1%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 64.5% 1.55 -14.1%

Draw 22.5% 25.0% 4.00 -6.0%

Away win 22.1% 20.8% 4.80 +3.6%

Over 2.5 59.5% 57.8% 1.73 +2.9%

Over 3.5 36.5% 35.1% 2.85 +4.0%

BTTS 54.5% 57.1% 1.75 -4.6%

Home O1.5 54.6% 62.5% 1.60 -12.6%

Away O1.5 25.9% 28.2% 3.55 -4.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -21.6%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 55% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 3–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shaanxi Union2.0

Changchun Yatai0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAANXI UNION · PPG 2.00

CHANGCHUN YATAI · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.04 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Shaanxi Union (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -14.1%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.0%

Changchun Yatai (A) 22.1%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shaanxi Union face Changchun Yatai in China - League One on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shaanxi Union a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Changchun Yatai 22%, so Shaanxi Union are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Shaanxi Union and 0.9 for Changchun Yatai (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shaanxi Union are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Changchun Yatai. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +48.4%.

Shaanxi Union vs Changchun Yatai Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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