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Deportivo vs Mirandes Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 36 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 18:30

Deportivo

PPG 1.71 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Mirandes

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-13.6%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.5%1-18.2%1-23.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.2%2-19.5%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.4%3-17.3%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.3%4+-17.2%4+-22.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.8% 65.8% 1.52 +9.1%

Draw 17.3% 25.6% 3.90 -32.5%

Away win 11.0% 15.2% 6.60 -27.4%

Over 2.5 59.6% 52.6% 1.90 +13.2%

Over 3.5 37.2% 30.8% 3.25 +20.9%

BTTS 48.7% 52.4% 1.91 -7.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.7%

H 72% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.2%

#2 1–0 10.5%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 3–0 9.4%

#5 1–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo2.3

Mirandes0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO · PPG 1.71

MIRANDES · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo (H) 71.8%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV +9.1%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -32.5%

Mirandes (A) 11.0%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV -27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo face Mirandes in Spain - Segunda División on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo a 72% chance, the draw 17% and Mirandes 11%, so Deportivo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Deportivo and 0.8 for Mirandes (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.94 for Mirandes. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Deportivo vs Mirandes Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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