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Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 10:30

Ulsan Hyundai FC

PPG 1.45 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gangwon FC

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-111.8%0-28.5%0-34.1%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.7%1-112.5%1-29.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.6%2-16.6%2-24.8%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.6%3-12.3%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 38.5% 2.60 -19.1%

Draw 27.0% 30.3% 3.30 -6.5%

Away win 42.0% 38.5% 2.60 +9.2%

Over 2.5 50.3% 51.3% 1.95 -1.9%

Over 3.5 29.7% 29.4% 3.40 +0.6%

BTTS 53.7% 58.8% 1.70 -8.7%

Home O1.5 30.2% 41.7% 2.40 -27.5%

Away O1.5 42.6% 41.7% 2.40 +2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -62.5%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.7%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 0–1 11.8%

#4 1–2 9.0%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulsan Hyundai FC1.1

Gangwon FC1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ULSAN HYUNDAI FC · PPG 1.45

GANGWON FC · PPG 1.45

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.38, combined xG 2.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ulsan Hyundai FC (H) 31.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -19.1%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.5%

Gangwon FC (A) 42.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulsan Hyundai FC face Gangwon FC in South Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Gangwon FC 42%, so Gangwon FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.4 for Gangwon FC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.45 for Gangwon FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.5%.

Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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