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Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Pohang Steelers

PPG 1.10 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ulsan Hyundai FC

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-113.8%0-29.3%0-34.2%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.6%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-04.5%2-16.0%2-24.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.4%3-11.9%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.7% 38.5% 2.60 -15.2%

Draw 27.7% 29.9% 3.35 -4.3%

Away win 43.6% 38.5% 2.60 +13.4%

Over 2.5 50.3% 51.3% 1.95 -1.9%

Over 3.5 28.8% 29.4% 3.40 -1.3%

BTTS 51.3% 58.8% 1.70 -12.8%

Home O1.5 32.1% 41.7% 2.40 -23.0%

Away O1.5 43.7% 41.7% 2.40 +4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -62.5%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.3%

A 44% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 10.3%

#3 0–1 13.8%

#4 0–2✓ 9.3%

#5 1–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pohang Steelers0.9

Ulsan Hyundai FC1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

POHANG STEELERS · PPG 1.10

ULSAN HYUNDAI FC · PPG 1.80

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.41, combined xG 2.28 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pohang Steelers (H) 28.7%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -15.2%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -4.3%

Ulsan Hyundai FC (A) 43.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pohang Steelers face Ulsan Hyundai FC in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pohang Steelers a 29% chance, the draw 28% and Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%, so Ulsan Hyundai FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Pohang Steelers and 1.3 for Ulsan Hyundai FC (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.80 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +4.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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