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Gwangju FC vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 10:30

Gwangju FC

PPG 0.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pohang Steelers

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+19.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-115.7%0-214.4%0-38.8%0-4+6.1%1 1-05.3%1-19.8%1-29.0%1-35.5%1-4+3.8%2 2-01.7%2-13.1%2-22.8%2-31.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-00.3%3-10.6%3-20.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.7% 24.4% 4.10 -23.8%

Draw 24.1% 31.3% 3.20 -13.7%

Away win 61.2% 51.3% 1.95 +19.3%

Over 2.5 50.8% 41.7% 2.40 +21.9%

Over 3.5 30.0% 21.1% 4.75 +42.5%

BTTS 48.3% 48.8% 2.05 -1.0%

Home O1.5 30.2% 25.0% 4.00 +20.8%

Away O1.5 52.1% 43.5% 2.30 +19.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -62.5%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob48.3%

A 61% / xG 0.6-1.8 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 14.4%

#2 0–1 15.7%

#3 1–1 9.8%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gwangju FC0.6

Pohang Steelers1.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GWANGJU FC · PPG 0.64

POHANG STEELERS · PPG 1.55

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.21 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Gwangju FC (H) 14.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -23.8%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.7%

Pohang Steelers (A) 61.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gwangju FC face Pohang Steelers in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gwangju FC a 15% chance, the draw 24% and Pohang Steelers 61%, so Pohang Steelers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Gwangju FC and 1.8 for Pohang Steelers (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gwangju FC are averaging 0.64 points per game versus 1.55 for Pohang Steelers. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +42.5%.

Gwangju FC vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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