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Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gwangju FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Bucheon FC 1995

PPG 0.70 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Gwangju FC

PPG 0.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-16.2%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.6%1-110.6%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.4%2-19.1%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.7%3-15.2%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-13.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% 52.6% 1.90 +6.0%

Draw 23.3% 30.8% 3.25 -14.6%

Away win 20.8% 23.8% 4.20 -7.6%

Over 2.5 50.3% 44.4% 2.25 +13.2%

Over 3.5 29.4% 23.8% 4.20 +14.1%

BTTS 49.6% 51.3% 1.95 -3.3%

Home O1.5 49.2% 46.5% 2.15 +5.8%

Away O1.5 17.4% 25.6% 3.90 -19.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -62.5%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.6%

H 56% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.6%

#2 2–0 13.4%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 0–0✓ 9.1%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bucheon FC 19951.7

Gwangju FC0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCHEON FC 1995 · PPG 0.70

GWANGJU FC · PPG 0.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.03 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bucheon FC 1995 (H) 55.8%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +6.0%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.6%

Gwangju FC (A) 20.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bucheon FC 1995 face Gwangju FC in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bucheon FC 1995 a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Gwangju FC 21%, so Bucheon FC 1995 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Bucheon FC 1995 and 0.7 for Gwangju FC (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bucheon FC 1995 are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 0.30 for Gwangju FC. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gwangju FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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