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FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

FC Anyang

PPG 1.10 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Daejeon Citizen

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-111.3%0-27.9%0-33.7%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.0%1-112.6%1-28.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.0%2-17.0%2-24.9%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.9%3-12.6%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.8% 36.4% 2.75 -7.0%

Draw 27.2% 29.9% 3.35 -5.3%

Away win 39.0% 40.8% 2.45 -4.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.3% 1.95 -1.7%

Over 3.5 29.4% 29.4% 3.40 -0.0%

BTTS 54.0% 58.8% 1.70 -8.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 40.0% 2.50 -19.8%

Away O1.5 43.7% 42.6% 2.35 +2.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -62.5%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.0%

A 39% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 0–1 11.3%

#4 1–2✓ 8.9%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Anyang1.1

Daejeon Citizen1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FC ANYANG · PPG 1.10

DAEJEON CITIZEN · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Anyang (H) 33.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -7.0%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.3%

Daejeon Citizen (A) 39.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Anyang face Daejeon Citizen in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Anyang a 34% chance, the draw 27% and Daejeon Citizen 39%, so Daejeon Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for FC Anyang and 1.4 for Daejeon Citizen (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Anyang are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.50 for Daejeon Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +2.7%. This match finished 1-2.

FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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