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FC Seoul vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 10:30

FC Seoul

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Daejeon Citizen

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-110.5%0-25.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.1%1-113.2%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.2%2-18.3%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.5%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 52.6% 1.90 -16.0%

Draw 26.7% 28.6% 3.50 -3.9%

Away win 29.1% 26.0% 3.85 +7.2%

Over 2.5 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 32.3% 3.10 -6.6%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 36.6% 52.4% 1.91 -30.1%

Away O1.5 30.1% 33.3% 3.00 -9.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -62.5%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Seoul1.3

Daejeon Citizen1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FC SEOUL · PPG 1.70

DAEJEON CITIZEN · PPG 1.64

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.25, combined xG 2.26 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Seoul (H) 44.2%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -16.0%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.9%

Daejeon Citizen (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +7.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Seoul face Daejeon Citizen in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Seoul a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Daejeon Citizen 29%, so FC Seoul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for FC Seoul and 1.0 for Daejeon Citizen (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Seoul are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.64 for Daejeon Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.4%.

FC Seoul vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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