Today / South Korea - K League 1 / Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 10:30

Incheon United

PPG 1.18 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-111.0%0-26.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.1%1-113.2%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.3%2-17.9%2-24.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.9%3-13.2%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% 50.0% 2.00 -18.6%

Draw 29.1% 30.3% 3.30 -2.4%

Away win 30.2% 27.0% 3.70 +11.7%

Over 2.5 45.9% 47.6% 2.10 -3.6%

Over 3.5 26.0% 26.7% 3.75 -1.5%

BTTS 49.2% 54.6% 1.83 -10.0%

Home O1.5 31.7% 46.5% 2.15 -31.9%

Away O1.5 34.6% 30.3% 3.30 +14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -62.5%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.2%

H 41% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Incheon United1.2

Gimcheon Sangmu FC1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

INCHEON UNITED · PPG 1.18

GIMCHEON SANGMU FC · PPG 1.27

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.11, combined xG 2.29 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Incheon United (H) 40.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -18.6%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.4%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (A) 30.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Incheon United face Gimcheon Sangmu FC in South Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Incheon United a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30%, so Incheon United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Incheon United and 1.1 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Incheon United are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.27 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.1%.

Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More South Korea - K League 1 Predictions