Today / South Korea - K League 1 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul

Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

PPG 0.90 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

FC Seoul

PPG 2.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+13.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-113.2%0-212.7%0-38.2%0-4+6.1%1 1-05.2%1-19.9%1-29.6%1-36.2%1-4+4.6%2 2-01.9%2-13.7%2-23.6%2-32.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-00.5%3-10.9%3-20.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.0% 26.7% 3.75 -21.8%

Draw 23.4% 27.8% 3.60 -9.5%

Away win 59.6% 52.6% 1.90 +13.2%

Over 2.5 53.5% 54.6% 1.83 -2.1%

Over 3.5 32.3% 33.3% 3.00 -3.1%

BTTS 53.0% 59.9% 1.67 -11.5%

Home O1.5 32.1% 33.9% 2.95 -5.3%

Away O1.5 54.7% 54.1% 1.85 +1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -62.5%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob53.0%

A 60% / xG 0.8-1.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.7%

#2 0–1 13.2%

#3 1–1 9.9%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0✓ 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimcheon Sangmu FC0.8

FC Seoul1.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMCHEON SANGMU FC · PPG 0.90

FC SEOUL · PPG 2.36

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.18 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (H) 17.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -21.8%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.5%

FC Seoul (A) 59.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimcheon Sangmu FC face FC Seoul in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 17% chance, the draw 23% and FC Seoul 60%, so FC Seoul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.9 for FC Seoul (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 2.36 for FC Seoul. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +1.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More South Korea - K League 1 Predictions